Two Years Remaining?
We estimate that Q-Day will come on June 10, 2028. That is 2 years from today.
Several protocols are at risk. Most concerning is the legacy RSA-1024 standard that is used in many older systems for authentication.
We are anchoring our target to available Logical Qubits in vendor roadmaps. As of this writing, IonQ has the most aggressive roadmap with 1600 logical qubits in 2028 and 8000 in 2029. 1600 logical qubits is not enough to crack RSA-1024. You are probably asking, why is 2028 the year in which Q-Day falls? Because we firmly believe that the acceleration of capability will continue through the next 2 years.
Roadmap
LQ = Logical Qubits. PQ = Physical Qubits.
| Vendor | Technology | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IonQ | Trapped Ion | 100 PQ | 800 LQ | 1600 LQ | 8000 LQ | 80000 LQ |
| PsiQuantum | Photonic | — | — | 100 LQ | 1000 LQ | — |
| Quantinuum | Trapped Ion | 50 LQ | 100 LQ | 100 LQ | “100s of LQ” | 1000s of LQ |
| Infleqtion | Neutral Atoms | 30 LQ | — | 100 LQ | — | 1000 LQ |
| Superconducting | 1 LQ | 10 LQ | 20 LQ | “Dozens of LQ” | 100+ LQ | |
| Xanadu | Photonic | — | — | — | 500 LQ | 500 LQ |
| IBM | Superconducting | 120 PQ | — | — | 200 LQ | — |
| Pasqal | Neutral Atoms | 2 LQ | 20 LQ | — | 200 LQ | — |
| QuEra | Neutral Atoms | 100 LQ | 100 LQ | — | — | — |
| Rigetti | Superconducting | 150 PQ | 1000 PQ | — | — | — |
| D-Wave | Superconducting | — | — | — | — | 10 LQ |
| Neutral Atoms | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Microsoft | Topological | — | — | — | — | — |
| Photonic | Photonic | — | — | — | — | — |
Innovation in error correction over the last five or six years has led to acceleration. Such innovation is in part due to the availability of functional NISQ systems — researchers have working systems to test and learn from, systems that did not exist in any accessible quantity prior to 2020. Additionally, IonQ and Oratomic researchers have publicly stated that AI has been an accelerant for their work in error correction.
For a detailed overview of 2026 advances in quantum cryptography for blockchain visit Nic Carter’s substack.
We assume that this acceleration will continue due to advances in software and hardware. AI will continue to improve. Currently, about every six months a new frontier model is released that is more powerful than the prior. Engineering at quantum computing companies continues to find ways to pull in their roadmap dates. The NISQ era build-out is largely about “building a quantum computer in order to learn how to build a quantum computer.” Now that NISQ is ending, we expect that leading firms will find ways to optimize their hardware that improve its stability and reduce the time to market.
In addition to technical innovations, changes to business process can also produce timeline acceleration. IonQ has said that their acquisition of Skywater Technologies will accelerate their design process. Their 2029 roadmap target of 8000 logical qubits would be pulled into 2028, if the merger closes. So, not necessarily an engineering issue as much as reducing the time to wait for design cycles at a third party, by making them first party. Magic.
In many parts of our modern world, two years can seem like a long time. What we are trying to emphasize is that there’s jaggedness in time, and two years may end up being 12, 14, or 18 months, and not twenty-four months. This means more important protocols like RSA-2048 could be at risk in … two years and not three.
Fortunately, standards bodies have defined and developed post-quantum-cryptographic (PQC) solutions which can be invoked today. And, many leading firms are already making the necessary changes. If you’re not, now is the time to act! Objects in mirror are closer than they appear.